I'll be the first to say I'm not good at geometry. May be a simpler way.
This does seem to match your blue curve. Coincidence? Will it work in all cases? Don't know :)
Draw two small half circles (magenta)
Draw straight line to ends of circles (green)
Select both circles and Blend [Tangent G1, Bulge = 1] (cyan)
Pilou find apex trick (orange lines)
Draw Perp to Perp line from Blend apex to green line (black)
Draw 3-point arc from top to bottom of green line while snapping the center to the intersection of the black & red lines (blue)
Ed Ferguson

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