I think your concerns are understandable and it
makes sense to think carefully about something
like this. But are chances so calculable ?
My thoughts, as an old starter, was:
No one can guarantee me success.
"If I try, I will have a change that is greater than zero.
If I don't even try and do nothing, my change will be zero.
I looked at the age of 46 for a job as a vector graphic designer,
because i have a passion for graphics. And almost every one
of my "friends" said to me, "You're too old to get a job." Well,
they didn't say "in this graphics field," they generally said I was
too old to find another job.
I didn't even have a plan for what to learn and what I needed to learn.
In the years leading up to this job, I just soaked up everything from
this field that fascinated me. And so accumulated a solid knowledge
over the years.
I ended up getting a very good and very well-paying job in the field
i wanted because of my solid, self-acquired knowledge in that field.
And the big point is that I never thought about the fact that i might
be too old for it. Maybe because i am a blue-eyed person ?
Or I was lucky ?
I wouldn't say that my friends are dumb people. They will have their
reasons for thinking that way. But if i had acted on those reasons,
I wouldn't have even tried to find a job in the field i wanted.
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